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NC and IN Sensitivity Update
As we close in on tomorrow's primaries in North Carolina and Indiana, the "standard" and "sensitive" trend estimates have largely converged.In North Carolina the standard estimator puts Obama at 50.1%...
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How much does the Pollster matter for Trend?
One of the things we think about a lot at Pollster.com is the quality of polling. Mark Blumenthal's post on the North Carolina poll demographics here is a great example of how much variability we see...
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NC and IN Final Pollster Comparisons
With the last of the preelection polls in, we can now do our "apples to apples" comparison. Follow each pollster in the charts to see who's high, who's low and who has jumped around.Note this is for...
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NC and IN Final Sensitivity Comparison
Both standard and sensitive estimators are agreed in North Carolina. In Indiana there is a little bit of room between them, but not enough to affect conclusions about the probable outcome (if the polls...
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Gay Marriage Support and Opposition
Marriage for gay and lesbian couples has been a hot button issue, most especially so in the 2004 election cycle when 11 states considered and passed referendums banning (in various ways) same-sex...
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Trends in Party Identification in Wisconsin
This week my colleague Ken Goldstein and I conducted a Wisconsin statewide survey sponsored by the UW Department of Political Science and WisPolitics.com. So fair warning that I'm a party to this...
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Polling Trends in 2008 vs '04 and '00
The most common description of polls is that they are snapshots, not predictions. A good way to look at that in the 2008 election is to compare the '08 campaign with the two that came before.The chart...
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Age, Turnout and Votes
It's all about who votes. Those that do win. Those that don't lose. The chronic losers in American politics are the young who famously turn out at low rates election after election.This year, those...
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How Pollsters Affect Poll Results
Who does the poll affects the results. Some. These are called "house effects" because they are systematic effects due to survey "house" or polling organization. It is perhaps easy to think of these...
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McCain, Obama and Clinton Favorability
A little interesting movement in views of the candidates has taken place since the end of the primaries in June. All three candidates, McCain, Obama and Clinton, have seen rises in their favorable...
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State Battlegrounds and Home Grounds
A quickie from Detroit Metro Airport.Mark Blumenthal reported on an interview with Obama campaign manager David Plouffe yesterday at Pollster. Plouffe discussed the 18 states the Obama campaign sees as...
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Republican Bounce and Trend Sensitivity
The post-convention bounce is now moving in the Republican direction, but with an enormous spread in estimates. A Gallup/USA Today (9/5-7) has an enormous 10 point McCain lead over Obama, 54%-44%. In...
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Post Convention Bounce in the States
The McCain campaign has gained significant support in national polling since the end of the Republican Convention, but what about the state polls? Has the shift also been reflected there?State...
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Ins and Outs of Polling
I did an hour on Minnesota Public Radio on September 10 discussing polling techniques and issues. Here is a link to the audio. Good callers!The focus on polling starts at 11:00 minutes into the show.
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State and National Polling Post-Convention
The gains of the Republican ticket continue in both state and national polling as more post-convention state polls become available. We now have 26 states with a post-convention poll and the results...
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Alaska Post-Palin
Alaska has long been a solidly "red" state but this year the troubles of the state's Senator Ted Stevens and Representative Don Young on top of Republican party "brand" troubles suggested there might...
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McCain Gains Not Limited to Red States
Obama advisor David Axelrod is quoted in today's Washington Post article by Dan Balz and Peter Slevin:"I think one of the things driving the national polls is that the red states are redder," said...
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Obama Recovery Across Red, Yellow and Blue States
Obama has now recovered his lead in national polling, rising at or above his post-DNC, pre-RNC level. This sharp turnaround erases the very sharp pro-McCain/Palin convention bounce we saw in early...
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Interactive charts now at Pollster.com
If you can't resist the urge to play with the data, we have new charts at Pollster.com that can satisfy your need. These are interactive versions of the charts here and previously at Pollster. You can...
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Campaign '08 vs '04 and '00 Update
The 2008 campaign had not seen a really big move in preferences until the financial crisis hit three weeks ago today. Since that time, the Obama-McCain margin has shifted almost 9 points in Obama's...
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National Sensitivity Comparison
Now that you can play with the sensitivity of the trend estimate on our interactive charts at Pollster.com, the need for my sensitivity comparisons is somewhat less. But, it is interesting to see that...
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Tracking Poll House Effects
There are six daily tracking polls currently reporting data, up from just two (Gallup and Rasmussen) during most of the year. How are they doing?Compared to our Pollster.com trend estimate based on all...
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The Road to 270 for McCain
(Click chart to see full size)It takes 270 to win this game. McCain is behind in national polls, down 7.5 in our Pollster.com Trend Estimate. But as you know, this is a game won in the states. So what...
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Undecided Voters and Racial Attitudes
How will undecided voters break, and will racial attitudes color their votes?We've seen an enormous amount of speculation but little evidence based on data, so let's try to tip the balance back to...
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We've Moved to PollsAndVotes.com
In the beginning was PoliticalArithmetik, created the weekend Katrina hit New Orleans.In 1996 I co-founded Pollster.com. In 2010 HuffingtonPost bought Pollster and I moved on.In 2011 I've created...
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